Researchers have concluded that the coronavirus epidemic, which has killed more than 239,000 people worldwide, could continue for another two years.
According to a study released by the Center for Infectious Diseases Studies and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota in the United States, more than 70% of people need to develop immunity to prevent the virus.
To study how Coronavirus epidemic could spread in the coming days and years, experts studied eight major influenza pandemics since the 1700s. He also studied the Nobel Coronavirus.
According to scientists, seven of the last eight epidemics appeared within six months of the first wave. Similarly, some epidemics remained a threat with small waves for about two years after the onset. “The duration of the epidemic is estimated to be 18 to 24 months, during which time the human population begins to develop herd immunity,” the report said. “Immunity development in at least 60 to 70% of the population to meet the critical threshold of herd immunity to prevent epidemics.” It should be. ‘
Herd immunity is a process of developing immunity in the community. Under this concept, the more the disease spreads, the more resilient the human community becomes.
But it will take time to get to that point, with blood tests showing that only a small percentage of the population has been infected so far, and it will take at least a few more months before a possible vaccine can be developed.
It is not clear whether immunity develops in people free from infection, but it is not clear how long such immunity will last.
The report points to a number of other possible scenarios, such as a large wave of illnesses in the end of 2020 or winter, and a small wave in 2021.
Researchers also say that people should be prepared to fight Kovid-19 for 18 to 24 months. However, hotspots are now open in many areas.
Experts say the virus and epidemic will continue to weaken as the human community continues to spread. According to him, the virus will begin to adjust to the seasonal pattern and its severity will decrease over time.